2018 ESA Annual Meeting (August 5 -- 10)

INS 31 - Advancing the Predictive Ability of the Global Carbon Cycle in Earth System Models

Friday, August 10, 2018: 10:00 AM-11:30 AM
243, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Organizer:
Forrest Hoffman
Co-organizer:
Yiqi Luo
Moderator:
Forrest Hoffman
While significant effort has been invested in understanding the centennial-scale behavior of the carbon cycle, carbon management and mitigation strategies require better quantification of annual- to decadal-scale carbon cycle processes and feedbacks. To advance the predictive ability of global carbon cycle models over shorter time scales, a new perspective and deeper understanding of intrinsic properties of terrestrial, marine, and human systems is required. In particular, effects of land use change, vegetation disturbance and recovery, and seasonal climate variability all impact the short-term trajectory of the carbon cycle, and many of those processes are not under human control. Similarly, the ocean carbon cycle depends strongly on upwelling, seasonal or storm-induced mixing, and wind-driven ventilation of the Southern Ocean. Carbon cycle feedbacks from a wide variety of human activities, which depend on economic activity, agricultural demand, and governmental policy, are poorly quantified or understood. This session is designed to identify processes and mechanisms important for improving the predictability of the carbon cycle across the Earth system. Discussed will be challenges in coordinated observation and modeling activities, opportunities for applying "Big Data" approaches for improved model-data integration, and model development needs for future Earth system models. With better predictive ability such models could better account for natural and anthropogenic effects on the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and offer reduced uncertainty regarding the potential success of near-term mitigation strategies.
Ecosystem memory affects atmospheric CO2 growth rate variations
Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, University of Michigan
Human carbon-cycle feedbacks to global warming may offset natural feedbacks
Dawn Woodard, University of California, Irvine; Steven J. Davis, University of California, Irvine; James T. Randerson, University of California, Irvine
Model intercomparisons: What can we learn from them?
Deborah Huntzinger, Northern Arizona University
Predictive uncertainties in soil organic carbon decomposition modeling
Chaoqun Lu, Iowa State University; Zhen Yu, Iowa State University; Jien Zhang, Iowa State University; Hanqin Tian, Auburn University; Deborah Huntzinger, Northern Arizona University; Christopher Schwalm, Northern Arizona University; Anna M. Michalak, Carnegie Institution for Science
Systematic model-data comparison for advancing global carbon cycle models
Forrest Hoffman, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Nathan Collier, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Oluwaseun O. Ogunro, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, University of Michigan; David M. Lawrence, NCAR; William Riley, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; James T. Randerson, University of California, Irvine
Quantifying multi-source carbon cycle model uncertainties: Sensitivity analysis, perturbed parameter ensemble, and uncertainty attribution
Yu Zhou, Clark University; Christopher A. Williams, Clark University; Huan Gu, Clark University
Detection and reduction of uncertainties in marine biogeochemical models
Oluwaseun O. Ogunro, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Scott M. Elliott, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weiwei Fu, University of California; Nathan Collier, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Forrest Hoffman, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
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