2018 ESA Annual Meeting (August 5 -- 10)

OOS 39 - Multistability and Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Abrupt Transitions in Terrestrial Ecosystems: Theory, Application and Management

Friday, August 10, 2018: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
346-347, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Organizer:
Krishnapriya Tamma
Co-organizers:
Sabiha Majumder and Sumithra Sankaran
Moderator:
Krishnapriya Tamma
In this era of global environmental change, stability has become a focal topic of study across diverse ecosystems. Several ecosystems are shown to have multiple stable states at similar environmental conditions; for example, in terrestrial systems, forests and savanna can both occur under similar rainfall conditions. Although both regimes can sustain for a range of climatic conditions, beyond a threshold, even small changes in the amount of rainfall cause the system to abruptly shift to the alternative regime. These shifts, called catastrophic regime shifts or critical transitions, are not easily reversible and can have devastating effects on ecosystems and the services they provide. Simple theoretical models have been used to understand the dynamics of such systems and to develop metrics to anticipate these transitions. However, some recent empirical studies show that these models have several caveats which render them unsuitable for application to real-world systems. Therefore, there is a need for empirically motivated models to better our understanding of abrupt transitions and their impacts on human societies. This session integrates theoretical and empirical studies on multistability, abrupt shifts and early warning indicators of the shifts, across various terrestrial socio-ecological systems. It will facilitate synthesis of underlying mechanistic processes with the broad scale emergent patterns associated with regime shifts. Specifically, it focuses on three interconnected topics within this vast field: 1) Investigation of multi-stability across environmental gradients, 2) dynamics of regime shifts and their impacts, and 3) early warning indicators of impending regime shifts. Focusing on these aspects and evaluating them together will help us develop better tools to understand the stability of ecosystems which can lead to improved conservation and management strategies.
8:00 AM
What does pattern-formation theory tell us about regime shifts
Ehud Meron, Ben Gurion University; Yuval R. Zelnik, Station d’Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale du CNRS
8:20 AM
Shift happens: Observations and modelling of alternative tree cover states of the boreal ecosystem
Beniamino Abis, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Victor Brovkin, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
8:40 AM
Empirical analysis of vegetation dynamics and the possibility of a catastrophic desertification transition
Nadav Shnerb, Bar-Ilan University; Haim Weissmann, Bar-Ilan University
9:00 AM
Spatial and social aspects of bistability in mosaic ecosystems
Kathryn Fair, Waterloo; Chris Bauch, University of Waterloo; Madhur Anand, University of Guelph
9:20 AM
Dryland degradation as a social-ecological regime shift: A sub-Saharan case study
Kristi Maciejewski, University of Stellenbosch; Reinette Biggs, Stellenbosch University
9:40 AM
10:10 AM
10:30 AM
Early warning indicators of ecological tipping points: Do they predict critical transitions in multi-stable systems, or something else?
Thomas M. Bury, University of Waterloo; Chris Bauch, University of Waterloo; Madhur Anand, University of Guelph
10:50 AM
Slow recovery from local disturbances as an indicator for loss of ecosystem resilience
Vasilis Dakos, University of Montpellier; Ingrid Van de Leemput, Wageningen University; Marten Scheffer, Wageningen University; Egbert H. van Nes, Wageningen University
11:10 AM
Facilitation and ecosystem resilience: Clustering patterns and spatial correlations
Sumithra Sankaran, Indian Institute of Science; Sabiha Majumder, Indian Institute of Science; Krishnapriya Tamma, Indian Institute of Science; Sonia Kéfi, CNRS; Miguel Berdugo, King Juan Carlos University; Vishwesha Guttal, Indian Institute of Science