The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states. Some support to this idea comes from the analysis of static patterns, where peaks of the vegetation density histogram were associated with these alternative states. We present a large-scale empirical study of vegetation dynamics, aimed at identifying and quantifying directly the effects of positive feedback. To do that, we have analyzed vegetation density across 2.5 106 km2 of the African Sahel region, with spatial resolution of 30X30 meters, using three consecutive snapshots.
Results/Conclusions
The results are mixed. The local vegetation density (measured at a single pixel) moves towards the average of the corresponding rainfall line, indicating a purely negative feedback. On the other hand, the chance of spatial clusters (of many "green" pixels) to expand in the next census is growing with their size, suggesting some positive feedback. We show that these apparently contradicting results emerge naturally in a model with positive feedback and strong demographic stochasticity. Static patterns, like the double peak in the histogram of vegetation density, are shown to vary between censuses, with no apparent correlation with the actual dynamical features. Our work emphasizes the importance of dynamic response patterns as indicators of the state of the system, while the usefulness of static modality features appears to be quite limited.