2022 ESA Annual Meeting (August 14 - 19)

OOS 23 A comparative perspective on integrating ecological forecasting with decision-making

8:00 AM-9:30 AM
520C
Organizer:
Korryn Bodner
Co-Organizer:
Carina Firkowski, Marie-Josée Fortin
Moderator:
Carina Firkowski
As the rate of human impact accelerates, “A Change Is Gonna Come” for social and ecological systems, requiring more rapid and science-based decision-making. Ecological forecasting — the process of predicting changes in ecological systems and their components with specified uncertainties — is useful to assist decision-makers in responding to environmental and societal concerns, even in uncertain conditions. Today, the recent availability of cyberinfrastructure, open-source data and novel techniques have increased opportunities to generate ecological forecasts. However, to design forecasts that are useful for decision-making, forecasts must not only be reliable but also must account for the interests and needs of decision-makers and those affected by the decision-making process. The challenge of accommodating those needs and interests is formidable as even when best practices for integrating forecasts into decision-making are known, mismatches can still occur between idealized practices and those adopted to build forecasting models. Both the development of strategies to tackle the divide between forecasting and decision-making and the challenges of their implementation need to be addressed across different sectors and levels of government. In this session, we will begin by outlining some of the best practices for bridging the divide between ecological forecasting and decision-making. These proposed best practices were generated by academic, government and industry researchers who have experience building forecasts and/or working with decision-makers. The first talk outlining these practices will serve as a foundation for the session. Each following speaker will focus on a different case study where forecasts were either successfully or unsuccessfully adopted in a decision-making context, and discuss why this outcome occurred. Speakers will highlight practices they perceived to be most beneficial, from using more advanced techniques and quantifying uncertainties, to improving communication and involving decision-makers earlier in the forecasting process, and how successful they were at implementing these practices. As this topic spans across different fields, the speakers in this organized oral session will discuss creating forecasts to address a range of issues, from caribou conservation to pandemic planning. Overall, the session will highlight areas of forecasting where we have better succeeded as a scientific community and where we still must work to close the gap between the idealized version of ecological forecasting and the reality of forecasting for decision making.
8:00 AM
Guidelines for bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and decision-making
Korryn Bodner, MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael’s Hospital;Carina Firkowski, University of Toronto;Joseph R. Bennett, PhD, Carleton University;Cole B. Brookson, University of Alberta;Michael C. Dietze, Boston University;Stephanie Green, University of Alberta;Josie Hughes, National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada;Jeremy T. Kerr, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa;Mélodie Kunegel-Lion, Natural Resources Canada;Shawn J. Leroux, Memorial University of Newfoundland;Eliot McIntire, Natural Ressources Canada;Péter K. Molnár, University of Toronto;Craig Simpkins, University of Auckland; Wilfrid Laurier University;Eden W. Tekwa, McGill University;Alexander Watts, Esri Canada;Marie-Josée Fortin, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto;
8:15 AM
Forecasting cumulative effects of anticipated resource development on wildlife and vegetation in the James Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario, Canada
Josie Hughes, National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada;Frances Stewart, PhD, Wilfrid Laurier University;Jennifer L. Baltzer, PhD, Wilfrid Laurier University;Lisa Venier, PhD, Natural Resources Canada;Stephanie Avery-Gomm, PhD, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch;Raquel Alfaro-Sánchez, PhD, Wilfrid Laurier University;Alex M. Chubaty, PhD, FOR-CAST Research & Analytics;Steven G. Cumming, Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University;Sarah Endicott, MSc, Environment and Climate Change Canada;Leonardo Frid, MSc, Apex Resource Management Solutions;Cheryl A. Johnson, PhD, Environment and climate Change Canada;Samantha McFarlane, PhD, Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada;Eliot McIntire, Natural Ressources Canada;Philip A. Wiebe, MSc, Natural Resources Canada;
8:30 AM
Forecasting Pacific salmon recruitment using empirical dynamic modeling
Luke Rogers, Fisheries and Oceans Canada;Luke Rogers, Fisheries and Oceans Canada;Andrew Edwards, Fisheries and Oceans Canada;Carrie Holt, Fisheries and Oceans Canada;
9:00 AM
Trait‐based vulnerability reveals hotspots of potential impact for a global marine invader
Stephanie Green, University of Alberta;Cole B. Brookson, University of Alberta;Christi Linardich, International Union for Conservation of Nature Marine Biodiversity Unit, Old Dominion University;
9:15 AM
Contributing to caribou land management plans in northern ecosystems while data, models, objectives and the ecosystems are in flux
Eliot McIntire, Natural Ressources Canada;Eliot McIntire, Natural Ressources Canada;Tati Micheletti, University of British Columbia;Ceres Barros, University of British Columbia;Frances Stewart, PhD, Wilfrid Laurier University;Ian Eddy, Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service;Celine Boisvenue, Natural Resources Canada;Junior A. Tremblay, Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada;Mathieu Leblond, Environment and Climate Change Canada;Alex M. Chubaty, PhD, FOR-CAST Research & Analytics;Steven G. Cumming, Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University;Alana R. Westwood, Dalhousie University;Trevor Teed, Dene Nation;James Hodson, Government of Northwest Territories;Samuel Hache, Canadian Wildlife Service;