Forecasting cumulative effects of anticipated resource development on wildlife and vegetation in the James Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario, Canada

Background/Question/Methods

The James Bay Lowlands in Northern Ontario, Canada, falls within one of the largest areas of intact wetlands on the planet, containing one of the largest soil carbon stores. The region is home to Indigenous peoples and wildlife, including the threatened boreal woodland caribou. It is presently inaccessible by road. There is an urgent need to assess the potential environmental impacts of proposed mining of ‘Ring of Fire' mineral deposits. Challenges for forecasting regional cumulative impacts of mining development and ongoing climate warming on vegetation and caribou include: lack of baseline information on the distribution and dynamics of vegetation, natural disturbance regimes, and the distribution, status, and behaviour of wildlife; the cost and logistical difficulty of data collection in remote areas; a lack of ethical space for engagement among scientists and Indigenous communities; and lack of quantitative models of peatland vegetation dynamics.

Results/Conclusions

We used available models of vegetation dynamics and caribou responses to explore a framework for integrating models into a decision support tool. We use this tool to highlight the needs and possibilities for impact assessment in the region, to identify opportunities for baseline data collection, to begin building partnerships, and to demonstrate the potential for open, modular decision support tools to better integrate ecological knowledge into decision making.