Tue, Aug 16, 2022: 8:00 AM-9:30 AM
520C
Organizer:
Michael C. Dietze
Moderator:
Michael C. Dietze
Ecological forecasting epitomizes this year’s theme of “A Change is Gonna Come”. Ecological forecasting supports new 21st century approaches to research, conservation, and management that are critical at a time of increasing variability and high uncertainty in many ecosystems. We live in a time dominated by transient dynamics and forecasts play an increasingly important role in anticipating change. Putting forecasts into practice, which involves both changes in approach and mindset, is a critical part of facing the “disciplinary reckoning” that requires ecology to become a more predictive science. Thankfully, because of recent advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress. Advances in sensor technologies, computational capacities, and statistical/data science techniques, when combined with reduced data latency, are making near real-time ecology a reality. Consequently, the practice of ecological forecasting, i.e., the process of predicting the future states of ecological systems and ecological services with fully specified uncertainties, is an area of high interest and rapid growth in ecology that was barely possible a generation ago. This session brings together ecologists from a diversity of study systems to highlight cutting-edge examples of near-term ecological forecasting that span ecosystem boundaries, time scales, and basic/applied applications. With the rapid growth of forecasting comes a need to share information about new approaches for model-data assimilation, quantification and analysis of uncertainties, best practices, and more. This session highlights a diverse set of speakers from across a range of career stages, races, nationalities, and institutions tackling ecological forecasting problems that directly provide data and models to inform environmental decision-makers. This session is organized by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI), an interdisciplinary, grassroots consortium that brings together scientists, managers, and policymakers developing near-term (daily to decadal) ecological forecasts. EFI’s overarching goal - to advance ecological forecasting within the ecology research community - is motivated by the goal to improve our ability to respond to complex environmental challenges by providing environmental decision-makers with the best available science in hand.
8:15 AM
Estimating and projecting interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird Sarah Saunders, National Audubon Society;Sarah Saunders, National Audubon Society;Walter Piper, Chapman University;Matthew Farr, Michigan State University;Brooke Bateman, National Audubon Society;Nicole L. Michel, National Audubon Society, New York City, NY, USA;Henrik Westerkam, National Audubon Society;Chad Wilsey, National Audubon Society; 9:00 AM
Ecological-Fishery Forecasting of short-lived species under climate variability and change Hassan Moustahfid, Dr., NOAA;Hassan Moustahfid, Dr., NOAA;Lisa Hendrickson, Dr., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration;Alexander Arkhipkin, Dr., Falklands Islands Directorate of Natural Resources, UK;Graham J. Pierce, Dr., Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Vigo, Spain;Avijit Gangopadhyay, Dr., University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA;Hideaki Kidokoro, Dr., Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Japan;Unai Markaida, Dr., El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Mexico;Chingiz Nigmatullin, Dr., Atlantic Branch of VNIRO (AtlantNIRO), RU;Warwick H. Sauer, Dr., Rhodes University, South Africa;Patrizia Jereb, Dr., talian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Italy;Gretta Pecl, Dr., University of Tasmania, Australia;;Thibaut De La Chesnais, University of Tasmania, Australia;Luca Ceriola, Dr., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy;Najih Lazar, University of Rhode Island, USA;Christopher J. Firmin, Dr., Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), UK;Vladimir Laptikhovsky, Dr., Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), UK; 9:15 AM
CANCELLED - Near-term agricultural forecasts of carbon dynamics to improve carbon sequestration and decision support at Field Observatory Network (FiON) sites Istem Fer, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Olli Nevalainen, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Henri Kajasilta, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Laura Heimsch, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Henriikka Vekuri, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Åsa Stam, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Stephanie Gerin, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Toni Viskari, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Julius Vira, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Tuomas Laurila, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Annalea Lohila, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Liisa Kulmala, Finnish Meteorological Institute;Jari Liski, Finnish Meteorological Institute;