Non-native, invasive plants are projected to shift their ranges with climate change, creating hotspots of risk where hundreds of novel species may soon establish and spread. The Northeast U.S. is one such hotspot, and natural resource managers identified range-shifting invasive plants as a top priority for improving adaptation to climate change. However, because monitoring for 100 novel species is impractical and costly, these range-shifting invasive plants need to be prioritized. Preventing negative impacts is a key goal of management, thus, comparing the potential impacts of range-shifting invasive species could inform this prioritization. Here, we adapted the Environmental Impacts Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) protocol to evaluate potential impacts of 100 non-native invasive plants that could establish either currently or by 2050 in the states of New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, or Rhode Island. We searched the Web of Science for each species and identified papers reporting ecological, economic, human health, or agricultural impacts. We scored ecological impacts from 1 (minimal concern) to 4 (major) and identified socio-economic impacts as present or absent. We used this information to inform discussions with Northeast natural resource managers about proactive invasive species policy and management.
Results/Conclusions
We compiled and evaluated 865 papers describing impacts of the target invasive species. We categorized 20 species as high-impact, 36 as medium-impact, and 25 as low-impact. We further refined high impact invasive species based on whether major impacts affect ecosystems found in Northeast U.S. and identified five high priority species: Anthriscus caucalis, Arundo donax, Avena barbata, Ludwigia grandiflora, and Rubus ulmifolius. Additional research is needed for 19 data-deficient species, which had no studies reporting impacts. Identifying and prioritizing range-shifting invasive plants provides a unique opportunity for early detection and rapid response that targets future problem species before they can establish and spread. During a workshop with Northeast state invasive species council members, we used this impact assessment to prompt further discussion about how to identify priority species for monitoring and management. Through this discussion, we also focused on the need to share information across state borders to avoid repeating risk assessment work. This research illustrates one step in a larger project of translational invasion ecology that aims to develop proactive policy and management targeting range-shifting invasive plants.