OOS 5 - Advancing the Ecological Forecasting Initiative: Novel Applications, Discoveries, and Opportunities

Tuesday, August 13, 2019: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
M100, Kentucky International Convention Center
Organizer:
Michael C. Dietze
Co-organizers:
Cayelan Carey and Jason McLachlan
Moderator:
Cayelan Carey
With recent advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making ecology more predictive. Consequently, the practice of ecological forecasting, i.e., the process of predicting the future states of ecological systems and ecological services with fully specified uncertainties, is rapidly expanding within ecology. With this growth comes a need to share information about new approaches for model-data assimilation, quantification and analysis of uncertainties, community standards, best practices, and more. In response to this gap, the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) was formed as an interdisciplinary, grassroots consortium to being together scientists, managers, and policymakers developing near-term (daily to decadal) ecological forecasts. EFI’s overarching goal - to advance ecological forecasting within the ecology research community - is motivated by the goal to improve our ability to respond to complex environmental challenges by providing environmental decision-makers with the best available science in hand. This session brings together ecologists from a diversity of study systems to highlight cutting-edge examples of near-term ecological forecasting that span ecosystem boundaries, time scales, and basic/applied applications, emphasizing the utility and need for the EFI within the ecological community. This session highlights speakers from across a range of career stages tackling ecological forecasting problems that directly provide data and models to inform environmental decision-makers.
8:00 AM
Near-term iterative forecasting of tick and small mammal populations to predict Lyme disease risk in the Northeastern U.S.
John R. Foster, Boston University; Shannon L. LaDeau, Cary Insitute of Ecosystem Studies; Richard S. Ostfeld, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies; Michael C. Dietze, Boston University
8:40 AM
Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts of animal populations
Elise Zipkin, Michigan State University
9:00 AM
Iterative vegetation spring phenology forecasting at a landscape scale
Kathryn I. Wheeler, Boston University; Katherine A. Zarada, Boston University; Michael C. Dietze, Boston University
9:20 AM
Recursive Bayesian updating for ecologists
Mevin B. Hooten, U.S. Geological Survey
9:40 AM
9:50 AM
End-to-end ecological forecasting: Cyber-infrastructure challenges and frontiers from sensors to clouds
Renato J. Figueiredo, University of Florida; Cayelan Carey, Virginia Tech; Quinn Thomas, Virginia Tech; Vahid Daneshmand, University of Florida; Bethany Bookout, Virginia Tech
10:10 AM
Forecasting water quality in a drinking water reservoir: An ensemble model approach
Whitney M. Woelmer, Virginia Tech; Bethany J. Bookout, Virginia Tech; Mary E. Lofton, Virginia Tech; Ryan McClure, Virginia Tech; Quinn Thomas, Virginia Tech; Cayelan Carey, Virginia Tech
10:50 AM
Predicting productivity: Ecological forecasting in the Earth System
Andrew M. Fox, University of Arizona; Tim J. Hoar, National Center for Atmospheric Research; David J.P. Moore, University of Arizona
11:10 AM
Observing and predicting tropical ecosystem carbon exchanges and their sensitivity to climate variability.
A. Anthony Bloom, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Junjie Liu, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Kevin Bowman, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Alexandra Konings, Stanford University; Victoria Meyer, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; John T. Reager, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Sassan S. Saatchi, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; John Worden, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Helen Worden, . Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) Laboratory; Nicholas. C. Parazoo, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Mathew Williams, University of Edinburgh; David S. Schimel, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology