The NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap was created in 2015 in order to coordinate cross-agency efforts to develop regional-scale forecasting capabilities across the U.S. Currently, NOAA’s ecological forecasting efforts primarily focus on 4 key areas; Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), hypoxia, habitat (predominantly marine fisheries and coral reefs), and aquatic pathogens. These efforts are highly interdisciplinary and require integration of NOAA’s expansive observation networks, data assimilation platforms, and forecast product dissemination capabilities. NOAA and its partners are specifically tasked with conducting applied research with the intent on developing forecast products that meet a wide variety of coastal community needs including protection of public health and management of natural resources. This presentation will provide an overview of NOAA’s ecological forecasting portfolio with specific focus placed on 1) providing an overview of NOAA’s diverse forecasting efforts and variable use of forecast products, 2) discussion of successes and challenges in transitioning applied research to operational forecasts, and 3) describing the successful use of social science and stakeholder engagement to develop forecast products that meet the needs of user groups.
Results/Conclusions
NOAA is currently focused on transitioning up to 13 priority forecast products that span nearly each coastal region of the continental U.S. The agency seeks to identify additional opportunities that may lead to increased science capacity (e.g. novel observations and experimental research), stakeholder engagement, and partnership endeavors that will enhance overall forecasting capabilities.