The effect of rising sea surface temperature on seabird behavior and population dynamics in the Pacific Northwest: Transients and tipping points

Background/Question/Methods

Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) are associated with changes in feeding and reproductive behaviors in colonial seabirds at Protection Island National Wildlife Refuge, Washington, USA, located in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Years of high SST are associated with high egg cannibalism in the colony; and during these years, females exhibit ovulation synchrony, that is, they lay eggs together on an every-other-day schedule. Eggs laid synchronously are less likely to be cannibalized.

Results/Conclusions

Proof-of-concept mathematical population models that include these behaviors as annual transient dynamics suggest that prolonged rises in SST can create tipping points that allow colony collapse.