2018 ESA Annual Meeting (August 5 -- 10)

OOS 32 - Novel Modeling Approaches in Disease Ecology

Thursday, August 9, 2018: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
345, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Organizer:
Graziella V. DiRenzo
Co-organizer:
Cheryl J. Briggs
Moderator:
Graziella V. DiRenzo
Emerging infectious diseases are one of the leading threats to human health, food security, and biodiversity. Ecologists rely on estimates of disease processes (e.g., population size, transmission rate, recovery probability, etc.) to develop risk assessments and disease mitigation strategies. In the earliest mathematical formulations to understand disease spread, Kermack & McKendrick and Anderson & May formulated a series of ordinary differential equations− commonly known as SIR models (i.e., susceptible, infected, recovered models). However, the key parameters in these host-pathogen models (e.g., transmission, contacts rates, recovery probabilities) are difficult to estimate using real-world data because the data needed for these mechanistic models are difficult or impossible to collect, and/or the data collected contain observation/sampling error. This session aims to synthesize research on novel statistical and mathematical approaches to estimate host-pathogen disease dynamics, using modeling techniques that take into account biological scales of organization (i.e., individual, population, community), nonlinear stochastic behaviors, host age-structure, and spatial variation. Speakers will present recent research including empirical and theoretical work on a variety of disease systems, including malaria, dengue, avian influenza, carnivore rabies, and other diseases that affect humans, wildlife, or both (i.e., spillover diseases; zoonosis). The speakers come from diverse backgrounds, and the uniting factor among them are their novel modeling approaches to understanding how pathogens affect individual-, population-, and community-level host ecology. There are also several conceptual themes running throughout the session, including the impact of host and spatial heterogeneity in disease dynamics, linking biological scales of organization, and using novel statistical and mathematical approaches to answering age-old questions in disease ecology.
1:30 PM
Disentangling spillover and onward transmission of zoonotic pathogens: Using stochastic mechanistic models to overcome surveillance data limitations
Monique R. Ambrose, University of California - Los Angeles; Adam J. Kucharski, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; James O. Lloyd-Smith, National Institutes of Health, University of California-Los Angeles
1:50 PM
Spatial heterogeneity and host movement drive malaria prevalence and persistence in complex landscapes
Miguel Acevedo, University of Florida; Olivia Prosper, University of Kentucky; Nick Ruktanonchai, University of Southampton
2:50 PM
Vaccine impact in homogeneous and age-structured models
Felicia Maria G. Magpantay, Queen's University
3:10 PM
3:20 PM
Similarity networks and agent-based models to address strain structure in hyper-diverse pathogens
Mercedes Pascual, University of Chicago; Qixin He, University of Chicago; Shai Pilosof, University of Chicago; Kathryn Ellen Tiedje, The University of Melbourne; Karen Day, The University of Melbourne
3:40 PM
Host density as a source of spatial heterogeneity for vector-borne transmission
Victoria Romero Aznar, University of Chicago; Mercedes Pascual, University of Chicago
4:20 PM
Multiscale models for predicting parasite life history
Megan A. Greischar, University of Toronto; Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, Colorado State University; Nicole Mideo, University of Toronto