2018 ESA Annual Meeting (August 5 -- 10)

SYMP 5 - Forecasting the Effect of Extreme Climatic Events on Population Dynamics: A Forthcoming Research Agenda

Tuesday, August 7, 2018: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
352, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Organizer:
Aldo Compagnoni
Co-organizer:
Jean H. Burns
Moderator:
Roberto Salguero-Gomez
Extreme climatic events are the most ecologically prominent implication of global climate change. Consequently, there is a pressing societal need to forecast their ecological effects. Such need is justified by effects that will span over food security, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and species’ population viability. In the past decade, countless experiments and exceptional weather events have provided ecologists with a firmer grasp on the nature and ecological implications of climatic extremes. However, these advances do not, by themselves, provide enough knowledge to inform ecological forecasts. This symposium aims to present the most promising avenues of research relevant to forecasting the effects of climatic extremes on populations. We focus on population dynamics because it is the demographic rates of survival, reproduction and migration/dispersal that constitute the center of species’ response to climate (e.g. its resilience, viability, vulnerability, etc.). First, we address theoretical advances in the definition and study of climatic extremes. Second, we show recent empirical results and delineate the challenge of translating ecological understanding into forecasts. Such overview has the objective of outlining a possible research agenda for forecasting extreme climatic events on population dynamics.
8:00 AM Cancelled
SYMP 5-1
Attribution of population dynamical responses to climatic extremes: Why, how and what does it tell us? (widthdrawn)
Martijn van de Pol, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
8:30 AM
Projecting the effect of extreme climatic events on the population dynamic of an age structured albatross population
Stephanie Jenouvrier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Centre d'étude biologiques de Chizé; Christophe Barbraud, Centre d'Etude Biologiques de Chizé; Deborah Pardo, Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé; Henri Weimerskirch, Centre d'Etude Biologiques de Chizé
9:00 AM
Forecasting forest responses to climate variability in real-time: How close are we and how do we get there?
Michael C. Dietze, Boston University; Ankur R. Desai, University of Wisconsin; Hamze Dokoohaki, Boston University; Istem Fer, Boston University; Ann Raiho, University of Notre Dame; Shawn P. Serbin, Brookhaven National Laboratory; Alexey Shiklomanov, Boston University; Toni Viskari, Finnish Meteorological Institute; Kathryn Wheeler, Boston University
9:30 AM
9:40 AM
Spatio-temporal forecasting pulsed-resource masting and its implications for wildlife
James Clark, Duke University; Chase Nunez, Duke University; Bradley J. Tomasek, Duke University
10:10 AM
Do reductions in fecundity as a result of increased soil freezing translate to a population decline in Thalictrum dioicum?
Anna Osvaldsson, Case Western Reserve University; Jean H. Burns, Case Western Reserve University
10:40 AM
Forecasting the response of plant populations to climate change: The role of species life history
Aldo Compagnoni, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg; Roberto Salguero-Gomez, University of Oxford; Dylan Z. Childs, University of Sheffield; Brittany J. Teller, Pennsylvania State University; Patrick Barks, University of Southern Denmark; Maria Paniw, Universidad de Cadiz; Tiffany Knight, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
11:10 AM
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