Species distribution of Puerto Rican butterflies and effects of future climate change

Background/Question/Methods

Most butterfly species live in the tropics but the effects of climate change on tropical Lepidoptera is not well understood. Puerto Rico is a key element of the Caribbean biodiversity hotspot. Yet, there is not much information about butterfly diversity or distribution across the island of Puerto Rico, which limits conservation efforts. To address this need, we studied the distribution of five common butterfly species including the Puerto Rican monarch. We compiled data for butterfly occurrences from three natural history collections and calculated species distribution models (SDMs). To produce the SDMs, we followed detailed methodology using climate envelope models and variables for temperature, precipitation and elevation.

Results/Conclusions

Our results suggests that, in general, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter appeared to be the strongest limiting variable of species distribution for most species. Also, other variables related to temperature, especially during the drier and hotter parts of the year, were important in determining the distribution of the species studied. In addition, the present modelling has identified, what could be, two distinct populations of Dismorphia spio (Pieridae) on the island, seperated by the Cordillera Central. We discuss these results in light of future predicted changes to temperature in Puerto Rico and the potential effects on distributions for these tropical ectotherms.