Arguments over the role that prediction plays and should play in Ecology have been both long-standing and controversial. However, it is unclear how much research is focused in prediction in ecology over time or relative to other major parts of the field, including the understanding of patterns and mechanisms or the use of ecology for management. Here, I analyze abstracts and titles from almost 300,000 papers published over 25 years (1991-2016) to determine whether a focus on prediction has changed through time relative to other important broad goals in ecology. Therein, I place prediction in a wholistic framework that encompasses the research process from the collection of natural history predictions to ecosystem management, highlight barriers to prediction, and discuss methods by which both established and emerging ecologists can surmount these barriers.
Results/Conclusions
I used keyword searches in the ISI Web of Science portal on over 291,000 abstracts published in the field of Ecology from 1991-2016 to determine whether ecological research has shifted relative emphasis on three central foci: understanding, predicting, and managing the biosphere. Research effort for understanding and predicting did not increase with time, while articles mentioning terms related to management almost doubled. Furthermore, there was a significant shift away from “exclusive” papers that included only one foci to “integrative” papers that mentioned multiple foci- a pattern seemingly driven by the increased focus on management, not by increases in focus on understanding or prediction. While it is absolutely critical to manage natural systems immediately with the best available science at hand, I argue that an increase in the explicit focus on understanding the complexity of ecological systems is critical to making ecology a more predictive discipline and increasing management success.