Population ecology: Prediction is harder than understanding

From the time of Lotka and Volterra population ecologists have continued to increase our understanding of the forces that contribute to the dynamics of populations.  This understanding has helped population ecology become more predictive, but fundamental challenges remain.  The role of large environmental noise, directional environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities lead to one set of challenges for prediction that is intimately tied with the possibility of regime shifts due to strong interactions within and between populations.  I will outline both these challenges and opportunities both for continuing to improve predictions and recognizing the limits to predictability.