Indigenous knowledge, forest landscape simulations and the cumulative effects of environmental changes

Background/Question/Methods

: Boreal landscapes are exposed to climate change, forestry and other industrial stressors, with consequences for Indigenous people whose wellbeing is tied to the land. We worked in collaboration with two Indigenous communities located in Eastern boreal Canada to (1) develop a landscape value model combining Indigenous knowledge and forest landscape simulations; (2) evaluate vulnerability to cumulative environmental changes for a set of 12 landscape value variables (e.g., moose abundance, fish quality, summer and winter access); and (3) assess the relative importance of climate change and forestry as drivers of environmental changes. We performed forest landscape simulations (2000-2100) using combinations of climate change and forestry gradients using the model LANDIS-II. We presented the simulation outputs to 17 Indigenous land-use experts and elicited the probability of fulfilling their needs relative to landscape values. We combined Indigenous knowledge and forest landscape simulations within a Bayesian network.

Results/Conclusions

: Our results indicate that rapid and acute changes in forest structure and composition are to be expected. The most vulnerable landscape values are those associated with mature and undisturbed forests. The harvesting rate influences the timing and amplitude of change. The influence of climate change varied from one region to another and was mostly associated with wildfire frequency. Adaptation strategies to preserve Indigenous landscape value could include reducing harvesting rates, implementing wildfire-prevention measures, and valuing alternative forest uses.