Wed, Aug 17, 2022: 11:15 AM-11:30 AM
513C
Background/Question/MethodsThe world’s warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on desert biodiversity are poorly known. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. We combined climate change projections with physiological models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally.
Results/ConclusionsOur results show considerable heterogeneity between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror patterns of temperature change. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying amounts in different desert realms. Alarmingly, < 25% of refugia area falls within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of key areas within the world’s warm deserts to protect species from climate change.
Results/ConclusionsOur results show considerable heterogeneity between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror patterns of temperature change. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying amounts in different desert realms. Alarmingly, < 25% of refugia area falls within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of key areas within the world’s warm deserts to protect species from climate change.