Mon, Aug 15, 2022: 5:00 PM-6:30 PM
ESA Exhibit Hall
Background/Question/MethodsLand degradation and discontinuation of ecosystem services (ES) are a common phenomenon that causes socio-economic and environmental problems in Ethiopia. However, a dearth of information is known on how ES is transforming from the past to the future with regard to Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transition. This study aimed at estimating the values of ES based on the past and future LULC changes in Rift Valley Basin, central Ethiopia. We analyzed LULC changes and estimated the total ES value for the years 1986-2051. Maximum likelihood classifier and Cellular Automata-Artificial Neuron Network (CA-ANN) model that integrates the Module for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSE) plug-in for QGIS version 2.0 were used to classify and predict LULC. CA-ANN model learning and validation were employed using 2001, 2011 and 2021 LULC maps. Following LULC change detection and prediction, the total ES values were estimated using benefit transfer method.
Results/ConclusionsThe results revealed that forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush-woodlands and water bodies were reduced by 9755ha (37%), 4092ha (38.4%), 21263ha (81%), 63161ha (25.7%), and 905ha (1%), respectively in the year between 1986 and 2021. Likewise, forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush lands and water bodies areas will be lost by 1.5%, 0.5%, 2.6%, 19.6% and 0.1%, respectively whereas cultivated lands, bare-lands and built-ups are increased in the years between 1986 and 2051. The total ES values were reduced by US$ 102 and 222.4 million in the years 1986-2021 and 1986-2051. Food production, biological control and pollination values were increased while other 14 ES decreased throughout the study periods. We, therefore, encourage policy enforcement and measures that could help for sustainability, and enhancement of multiple ES. We also recommend further studies to examine other land use management scenarios which were not incorporated here could help policy directions.
Results/ConclusionsThe results revealed that forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush-woodlands and water bodies were reduced by 9755ha (37%), 4092ha (38.4%), 21263ha (81%), 63161ha (25.7%), and 905ha (1%), respectively in the year between 1986 and 2021. Likewise, forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush lands and water bodies areas will be lost by 1.5%, 0.5%, 2.6%, 19.6% and 0.1%, respectively whereas cultivated lands, bare-lands and built-ups are increased in the years between 1986 and 2051. The total ES values were reduced by US$ 102 and 222.4 million in the years 1986-2021 and 1986-2051. Food production, biological control and pollination values were increased while other 14 ES decreased throughout the study periods. We, therefore, encourage policy enforcement and measures that could help for sustainability, and enhancement of multiple ES. We also recommend further studies to examine other land use management scenarios which were not incorporated here could help policy directions.