Does environment matter to variation in lifetime reproductive success and when?

Background/Question/Methods

The lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of individuals is affected by random eventssuch as death, realized growth or realized reproduction, and the outcomes of theseevents can differ even when individuals have identical probabilities. Another sourceof randomness arises when these probabilities also change over time in variable environments.

Results/Conclusions

For structured populations in stochastic environments, we extend ourrecent method to determine how birth environment and birth stage determine therandom distribution of the LRS. Our results provide a null model that quantifieseffects on LRS of just the birth size or stage. Using Roe deer Capreolus capreolus asa case study, we show that the effect of an individual's birth environment on LRSvaries with the frequency of environments and their temporal autocorrelation, andthat lifetime performance is affected by changes in the pattern of environmentalstates expected as a result of climate change. Our new approach makes it possible to quantify the impactof early-lifeenvironmental conditions, and individual statein the first year of life, on the distribution of LRS in thecontext of temporally variable environments.