Exploring future food systems in the context of emerging zoonotic diseases using scenario exploration

Background/Question/Methods

The unprecedented economic and health impacts of COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic outbreaks, which occur at the human-wildlife/domesticated animal interface in spillover events. Spillover events are associated with higher habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, increased agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting and farming - all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in food systems discourse in order to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of zoonotic outbreaks. Here, we adopt a risk analysis and qualitative scenario framework to highlight the myriad connections between food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions - the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed - that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability.

Results/Conclusions

Our analysis sheds light on a hitherto but increasingly important dimension of food system transformation, calls for which increasingly abound. We detail the implications of our findings for advancing sustainable development while reducing zoonotic spillovers, highlighting future research directions.