2022 ESA Annual Meeting (August 14 - 19)
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OOS 18-6 Phenological convergence over space and time: Shifts in tundra phenology with long-term and experimental warming

2:45 PM-3:00 PM
520D
Janet Prevey, USGS;Sarah C. Elmendorf,University of Colorado, Boulder;Anne Bjorkman,Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden, Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;Juha M. Alatalo,Environmental Science Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar;isabel Ashton,National Park Service, 820 Columbus Street, Rapid City, SD 57701, USA.;Jakob J. Assmann,Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark;Robert G. Björk,Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, PO Box 460, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;Mats P. Björkman,Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, PO Box 460, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;Nicoletta Cannone,Department of Science and High Technology, Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, 2210 Como, Italy;Michele Carbognani,Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 11/A, I-43124 Parma, Italy;Chelsea Chisholm,Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich 8092, Switzerland;Karin Clark,PO Box 1320, Yellowknife, NT X1A 2L9, Canada;Courtney G. Collins,University of British Columbia;Elisabeth J. Cooper,Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway;Bo Elberling,Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark;Esther R. Frei,WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Fluelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland;Greg R.H. Henry,University of British Columbia;Robert D. Hollister,Biology Department, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI 49401-9403, USA;Toke T. Høye,Department of Bioscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Grenåvej 14, 8410 Rønde, Denmark;Ingibjörg Jónsdóttir,University of Iceland;
Background/Question/Methods

Global climate change has significantly altered the phenology of organisms around the world, however, the magnitude of phenological responses can differ greatly between sites and species. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants in cold grassland steppe and tundra to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150,434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods up to 26 years.

Results/Conclusions

Observations from this dataset revealed that green-up and flowering of plants at colder tundra sites is more sensitive to changes in temperature than phenology of plants from warmer tundra sites, and that late-flowering tundra species flower earlier with warmer temperatures than early-flowering species – potentially leading to shorter flowering seasons with predicted warmer summers in the future. Together, these results indicate that temporal overlap in flowering between and within tundra plant populations may increase as the climate warms, possibly altering the potential for pollen transfer and therefore gene flow. This work, and future syntheses involving the tundra phenology database, can be used to inform and refine climate-vegetation models, and predict regions where phenological mismatch between vegetation and pollinators or herbivores will be likely as the climate changes.