2021 ESA Annual Meeting (August 2 - 6)

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of White-Backed Vulture, Gyps bengalensis in Asia

On Demand
Uzma Ashraf, Wild Energy Center, Institute of the Environment - Energy and Efficiency Institute, Global Ecology and Sustainability Lab, Land, Air & Water Resources Department, Wild Energy Center, Institute of the Environment - Energy and Efficiency Institute, University of California, Davis, CA, USA;
Background/Question/Methods

The decline in the population of Asian Gyps vultures are one of the most rapid and widespread recorded among any species. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has declared the Oriental White-backed Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) as critically endangered. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are widely used to estimate the distribution of species under different climatic scenarios based on their present-day climatic relationships. The aim of this study was to predict the current potential distribution and future distribution of Gyps bengalensis and identify suitable conservation ranges. Bioclimatic layers from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (2050) were selected to find the future projections of the geographic potential of the species. Maximum likelihood method (Maxent) was run to predict the species potential distribution in Asia.

Results/Conclusions

The results show that under future climatic scenarios the distribution of Gyps bengalensis will be severely affected. Results were highly accurate with low omission error and high AICc value. There is a significant decrease in the distribution of Gyps bengalensis due to extreme climatic conditions and loss of habitat. It is recommended that the areas predicted suitable for conservation of Gyps bengalensis must be taken under consideration to protect the species from becoming extinct.