Wed, Aug 04, 2021:On Demand
Background/Question/Methods
Earth’s biodiversity has responded to global climate change in the past, in part through major changes to species distributions. However, human land-use, and agricultural land in particular, may prevent species from shifting or expanding their ranges in coming decades as the planet warms. Although recent studies have begun to address this interaction between climate and land-use change, it's poorly understood how both historical and future land-use may inhibit range shifts for a large number of species, or how this may affect global biodiversity projections under climate change. Here, we address this gap by combining range shift projections for ~12,000 species of terrestrial mammals and birds with species-specific habitat preferences and land-use projections for the period 1000-2070.
Results/Conclusions • By mapping the changing land-use suitability in species’ future ranges, we reveal the extent to which the spread of human land-use over the last millennium has unwittingly limited the potential for species to cope with future climate change. • We highlight regions where past and future land-use might limit range-shifting potential for the greatest number of species. • We then identify species we expect to be pushed towards extinction by the combination of future land-use and climate change, which could be overlooked if we considered either pressure in isolation. • Finally, we consider how land-use, when added to range shifts, affects future biodiversity projections. Under a fossil-fuelled development scenario, not only are climate impacts severe, but future land-use change continues to exacerbate these impacts on every continent. However, by following a more sustainable development pathway, future land-use change could be a force for good, on average making climate impacts on biodiversity less severe than they would be if we paused land-use in its contemporary state. • Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple pressures on biodiversity and the value in pursuing a more sustainable development trajectory if we are to minimise biodiversity loss in the 21st century.
Results/Conclusions • By mapping the changing land-use suitability in species’ future ranges, we reveal the extent to which the spread of human land-use over the last millennium has unwittingly limited the potential for species to cope with future climate change. • We highlight regions where past and future land-use might limit range-shifting potential for the greatest number of species. • We then identify species we expect to be pushed towards extinction by the combination of future land-use and climate change, which could be overlooked if we considered either pressure in isolation. • Finally, we consider how land-use, when added to range shifts, affects future biodiversity projections. Under a fossil-fuelled development scenario, not only are climate impacts severe, but future land-use change continues to exacerbate these impacts on every continent. However, by following a more sustainable development pathway, future land-use change could be a force for good, on average making climate impacts on biodiversity less severe than they would be if we paused land-use in its contemporary state. • Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple pressures on biodiversity and the value in pursuing a more sustainable development trajectory if we are to minimise biodiversity loss in the 21st century.