2020 ESA Annual Meeting (August 3 - 6)

OOS 44 - Demographic Range Modeling

Organizer:
Emily L. Schultz
Co-organizers:
Thomas Miller and Margaret E. K. Evans
Species around the world are experiencing range shifts in response to global change, so there is a critical need for a better understanding of the factors that limit species ranges in order to predict future range shifts. Process-based models of species distribution incorporate biological processes underlying distributions and identify the drivers of range limits. They are therefore expected to make better predictions of future distributions under novel conditions than the purely correlative models that have been widely used. Demographic range models, specifically, incorporate demographic processes underlying range limits and provide insight into both the establishment and persistence niche of species, even when species ranges are not at equilibrium with respect to environmental constraints. However, there are still many challenges inherent in demographic range modeling, such as sparse data, extrapolation to novel conditions, generalizing to many species, and identifying drivers of range limits at different scales. The objective of this session is to demonstrate the use of demographic range models for understanding the processes that drive range limits and predicting future distributions. We aim to make connections between a fundamental understanding of the drivers of range limits, with talks on the importance of large-scale disturbance, dispersal, and variation at multiple scales, and how this understanding can be used to compare management strategies. We will also synthesize across a variety of modeling approaches, combining data on multiple biological processes from individual- to ecosystem-level, to provide solutions to some of the challenges of range modeling. This session should be of broad interest to ESA members. Demographic range models unite basic ecology and applied ecology by using a mechanistic understanding of the drivers of range limits to make better predictions of range shifts in response to global change, which can help inform conservation decisions. Presenters will discuss a wide variety of approaches to demographic range modeling, spanning physiology, population ecology, and ecosystem ecology. They will discuss cutting-edge quantitative approaches, such as Bayesian hierarchical modeling and data assimilation, that can help researchers in many fields take advantage of the “Ecological Data Revolution”.
King of the hill? How biotic interactions influence the low elevation range limits of alpine restricted plant species
Joshua Lynn, Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, University of Bergen, University of New Mexico; Thomas Miller, Rice University; Jennifer Rudgers, University of New Mexico
Quantifying spatiotemporal occupancy dynamics and multi-year core use areas at a species range boundary
Beth Gardner, University of Washington; Nathan J. Hostetter, University of Washington; Daniel Ryan, U.S.D.A. Forest Service; David Grosshuesch, U.S.D.A. Forest Service; Timothy Catton, U.S.D.A. Forest Service; Sarah Malick-Wahls, U.S.D.A. Forest Service; Tamara A. Smith, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Implications of range-wide variation in recruitment for tree range dynamics in a changing climate
Paige Copenhaver-Parry, George Fox University; Matthew V. Talluto, University of Innsbruck
Using simulation-based species distribution models for better informed management decisions
Tim Szewczyk, University of Lausanne, University of New Hampshire; Thomas D. Lee, University of New Hampshire; Mark J. Ducey, University of New Hampshire; Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, Pace University; Hayley Bibaud, University of New Hampshire; Jenica M. Allen, Mount Holyoke Colege
Incorporating large-scale disturbances into demographic range models: The importance of fire as a factor limiting the distribution of Pinus edulis
Emily L. Schultz, University of Arizona; Pieter A. Zuidema, Utrecht University; Margaret E. K. Evans, University of Arizona
The potential for vegetation demographic models to simulate compositional turnover across environmental gradients and with climate change
Lara M. Kueppers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley; Polly Buotte, University of California Berkeley; Thomas L. Powell, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Rosie A. Fisher, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique; Charles D. Koven, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Jacquelyn Shuman, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Chonggang Xu, Los Alamos National Laboratory