2020 ESA Annual Meeting (August 3 - 6)

OOS 69 - Ecological Forecasting: Applications, Discoveries, and Opportunities

Tuesday, August 4, 2020: 3:30 PM-4:00 PM
Organizer:
Leah R. Johnson
Co-organizer:
Michael C. Dietze
Moderator:
Jason McLachlan
Ecological forecasting truly epitomizes this year’s theme of “Harnessing the ecological data revolution”. With recent advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making ecology more predictive. Advances in sensor technologies, computational capacities, and statistical/data science techniques, when combined with reduced data latency, have made possible a new 21st century approach to near real-time ecology that is accelerating basic research. Consequently, the practice of ecological forecasting, i.e., the process of predicting the future states of ecological systems and ecological services with fully specified uncertainties, is an area of high interest and rapid growth in ecology that was barely possible a generation ago. Ecological forecasting is also supporting new 21st century approaches to conservation and management that are critical at a time of increasing variability and high uncertainty in many ecosystems. This session brings together ecologists from a diversity of study systems to highlight cutting-edge examples of near-term ecological forecasting that span ecosystem boundaries, time scales, and basic/applied applications. With the rapid growth of forecasting comes a need to share information about new approaches for model-data assimilation, quantification and analysis of uncertainties, best practices, and more. This session highlights speakers from across a range of career stages tackling ecological forecasting problems that directly provide data and models to inform environmental decision-makers. This session is organized by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI), an interdisciplinary, grassroots consortium that brings together scientists, managers, and policymakers developing near-term (daily to decadal) ecological forecasts. EFI’s overarching goal - to advance ecological forecasting within the ecology research community - is motivated by the goal to improve our ability to respond to complex environmental challenges by providing environmental decision-makers with the best available science in hand.
3:30 PM
Forecasting for public health: Forecasting challenges for vector-borne diseases
Michael Johansson, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
3:45 PM
Quantifying and incorporating uncertainty in predictions of coastal wetland stability
Megan L. Vahsen, University of Notre Dame; James Holmquist, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Jason McLachlan, University of Notre Dame
4:00 PM
Near-term, iterative forecasts of freshwater ecosystem dynamics enable a novel strategy for managing reservoir drinking water quality
Quinn Thomas, Virginia Tech; Cayelan Carey, Virginia Tech; Rachel S. Corrigan, Virginia Tech; Mary E. Lofton, Virginia Tech; Ryan McClure, Virginia Tech; Whitney M. Woelmer, Virginia Tech
4:15 PM
Assessing the utility of subseasonal forecasts as a management tool for predicting cetacean distributions in the Northeast United States
Julia Stepanuk, Stony Brook University; Hyemi Kim, Stony Brook University; Janet Nye, Stony Brook University; Jason J Roberts, Duke University; Patrick N. Halpin, Duke University; Debra L Palka, National Marine Fisheries Service; D. Ann Pabst, University of North Carolina Wilmington; William A McLellan, University of North Carolina Wilmington; Susan G Barco, Virginia Aquarium and Marine Science Center Foundation; Lesley Thorne, Stony Brook University
4:30 PM
Using citizen observations to forecast ecosystems from jellyfish to moose to whales
Nicholas R. Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences; Benjamin Tupper, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
4:45 PM