Current approaches to predict, prioritize, and regulate invasive species in the U.S. occur post-introduction andfocus on proven invaders with known impacts. There is an urgent need to identify unknown or emerging invaders so preventative measures can be implemented. Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to identify potential threats and emerging issues to inform policy, regulations, and decision-making. We assembled a working group of invasion scientists, taxonomists, and other experts to embark on a horizon scan to identify invasive species threats to Florida and the pathways for entry. We assembled five teams: marine/estuarine, plant, terrestrial invertebrate, freshwater invertebrate, and vertebrate. Teams are coupling risk assessment and consensus building to produce a ranked list of potential invasive species threats. There are four phases to this horizon scan: 1) Organizational and exploratory phase (assemble teams, compile list of species), 2) Consultation among experts (knowledge gathering, risk assessment, preliminary ranking), 3) Review Phase (consensus building, refine ranking), 3) Final Phase (finalized ranking, publications). We held an organizational workshop in December 2019 and used oral presentations, group brainstorming, and individual team breakout sessions to develop the lists of species for consideration, the pathway categorization framework, and the rapid risk assessment tool.
Results/Conclusions
We consulted with CABI to assemble a list of potential species for consideration. The initial list given to all teams was comprised of 9629 species. Each group selected the species within their taxonomic group and worked to narrow the list by eliminating species prior to the risk assessments that are: 1) already present in the state, 2) not naturalized or invasive elsewhere, 3) limited in global distribution, and 4) deamed unfeasible for entry or establishment based on the expertise of the team members. Each teams are now conducting risk assessments on their lists, which range from 100 to 200 species. Assessors are scoring the likelihood for arrival, establishment, and causing negative impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem, economy, or human health. The pathway(s) for arrival are also summarized and scores will be ranked and used for consensus building. We will reach final consensus in Fall 2020 during a second workshop. This process will provide a framework for identifying invasive species threats in Florida, and establish a model that can be used across the U.S.