The Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology (METE) predicts empirical patterns in relatively static ecosystems from constraints imposed by the macroscopic state variables of species richness, abundance, and metabolic rate. However there is evidence that these predictions fail in disturbed or dynamic ecosystems. We combine the MaxEnt inference procedure with explicit mechanisms governing disturbance to dynamically extend METE and develop a new theory called DynaMETE. DynaMETE depends on the parameters describing the explicit mechanisms as well as the rate of change of the state variables and predicts novel shapes for macroecological metrics.
Results/Conclusions:
In the static limit DynaMETE’s predictions are very similar to METE’s, and it also predicts scaling relationships for biomass, species richness, and productivity. For the species area relationship in particular, DynaMETE and METE make very similar predictions even though the DynaMETE prediction does not depend on any spatial distribution function but instead depends on the explicit mechanisms.
We can use DynaMETE to predict how macroecological patterns will respond to different types of disturbance by changing the mechanistic parameters from steady state values. We show how the abundance and metabolic rate distributions change under disturbances to birth and death rate, ontogenetic growth, and migration rate. In addition to macroecological patterns, perturbing these mechanistic parameters allows DynaMETE to predict the rate of change of state variables. Because DynaMETE applies explicit dynamical mechanisms, but does not assume any specific traits of species or individuals, it is widely applicable across diverse ecosystems. This makes it a promising theory of macroecology for ecosystems responding to anthropogenic or natural disturbances.