Ecological forecasts are generally presented at regional to continental scales, and not updated once published in a journal. Yet fine scale forecasts (eg. for a single ranch, or county) would be extremely valuable to decision makers. Recent advances in grassland modelling have allowed for detailed forecasts of the timing and amount of grassland forage. Here we use a state of the art grassland model along with CMIP5 climate data to forecast productivity in Western USA rangelands to the year 2100. We also provide an online tool which allows for inquiries into areas and times of interest, where details are provided on historic and projected trends.
Results/Conclusions
Preliminary results for a subset of grasslands in Northeast Colorado show peak productivity happening approximately 10 days sooner by 2050 relative to 2010 under the RCP2.6 scenario, though not necessarily resulting in increased productivity overall. Under RCP4.5 the date of peak productivity shows high uncertainty by 2050 due to higher uncertainty in precipitation.
Our interactive tools allows for land users and decision makers to view information such as this for their own locations. Fine scale forecasts, both in space and time, of ecological processes will be important for providing information for long term planning under a changing climate.