Tropical island ecosystems are thought to be vulnerable to climate change because of low biodiversity and narrow thermal tolerances of plant communities. The people of the Pacific islands are especially vulnerable because of their dependence on natural resources and their rich ethnobotanical traditions. The goal of this study is to assess plant vulnerability to help combat the negative impacts of climate change on the people in the Pacific. To achieve this goal, we have two specific aims. (1) use distributional data to define physiological niches for 200 dthnobotanically important plant species in Polynesia and (2) assess sensitivity to climate change based on forecast gains or losses in potential geographic range due to climate change. With these forecasts and change in geographic range with climate change, we explore whether there are functional differences, or ethnobotanical usage differences that are predictive in forecasting range change. We used the Thornley Transport Resistance Model that allows us to examine geographic range, environmental range, and key environmental niche dimensions that describe how growth and resource uptake are influenced by temperature, soil nitrogen, water availability, and solar radiation.
Results/Conclusions
Geographic distribution was the best indicator of plant vulnerability with specialist species losing significantly more distribution proportion as opposed to generalist species. Furthermore, ethnobotanical used was predictive of species vulnerability with endemic and cultural species losing significantly more proportion than agricultural plants species. There are no significance differences in distribution loss between graminoid, forbs, trees, or shrubs. Finally, our results found over 50 plants species that are vulnerable to climate including many important medicinal, cultural and agricultural plant species. This research identified priority species and informs conservation moving forward. With this information the people of the Pacific can find new ways and methods to conserve their plant resources and adapt to climate change.