Habitat destruction has arguably been the greatest threat to biodiversity globally. Predicting the impacts of habitat loss on biodiversity is challenging because it requires extensive knowledge of both spatial patterns of habitat loss and species’ distributions to predict. In order to better understand how future habitat loss may impact species , we utilize an approach that combines remote sensing data, ecosystem modeling, global species’ range modelling workflows, and null modeling to ask:
- How does the relative “clustering” of habitat loss impact the rate of biodiversity loss?
- How does the relationship between habitat loss and species loss change as a function of beta-diversity?
- What is the form of the relationship between predicted future habitat loss and future biodiversity loss?
Results/Conclusions
We find that under multiple different assumptions and models of the spread and aggregation of habitat destruction, we observe critical “tipping points” in biodiversity, where biodiversity loss rapidly increases with only minor increases in habitat destruction. Importantly, these “tipping points” occur for different reasons under different scenarios, including the destruction of habitats characterized by low beta diversity, or relatively clustered destruction crossing into regions of high diversity. Further, the tipping points occur irrespective of different modeling decisions related to how species are classified as being impacted by habitat destruction. If these biodiversity tipping points are concurrent with proposed ecosystem tipping points, such as those in the Amazon, there may be cascading effects on ecosystem function and biodiversity.