In Mexico changes in climate are of the uttermost importance for peasant families since their socioeconomic status and livelihoods are tied to the success of the maize agricultural system called “milpa”. This study explores whether perception of changes in climate variability explains changes in agricultural management in two Nahua indigenous communities of San GabrielVista Hermosa (SG) and San Marcos Tlatlalkilotl (SM) in Coyomeapan municipality, Mexico. Our hypotheses were: 1) peasants perceive changes in meteorological variation through changes in meteorological indicators and their effect upon their milpas; 2) peasants modify their agricultural practices according to their perceptions of changes in meteorological variation. The objectives were: a) explore peasants’ perceptions of climate change indicators and how they experience them; b) explore the relations between meteorological perception and socioeconomic characteristics; and c) contrast peasants’ perceptions with climate records. Semi-structured interviews were applied to obtain information on peasants’ socioeconomic status, crop manangement, and climate perception and adaptation. To test the second hypothesis a logistic regression was performed between a perception index as explanatory variable and the probability of management change as the response variable. The years mentioned by peasants were searched within the climate record to explore their resemblance.
Results/Conclusions
We conducted a total of 20 interviews in SG and 14 in SM. Rain changes were the most cited (60 and 86 %, SG and SM), followed by wind (60 and 50 %). Rain changes comprise reduction in rain intensity (58 and 27 %), season length (0 and 9 %), or both (42 and 64 %). The years mentioned by peasants corresponded with extreme precipitation values in the climate record. In both communities, interviewees only cited reductions in wind intensity. Interview analysis show that rain and its changes are perceived through milpa’s annual development and landscape ecological process; while wind changes where perceived by its impacts. Farmers also reported changes in crop pests, but they were construed as a result of milpa’s management. Logistic regression did not suggest a significant relation between the perception index and the probability of management change. Finally, road openings, and its practical and economical effects, have transformed milpa’s management and the local agrodiversity, suggesting that socio-ecological transformations modify vulnerability to wind. We conclude that, although peasants perceive changes in meteorological variation, contemporary milpa management is the outcome of a web of interacting factors, with a prevalence of socioeconomical dynamics that stretch beyond local scales.