Forests are increasingly under stress from biotic and abiotic disturbances such as insects or windthrow as well as changes in climate. However, the relative influence of these disturbances on forested ecosystems remains deeply uncertain due to differential vulnerabilities and risks across space and time. Moreover, communication of these complex dynamics to inform management remains challenging. Here, we synthesize two landscape-scale modeling efforts to explore interactions among disturbances and climate on forest biodiversity in the mixed hardwood forests of northern Wisconsin. We used a spatially-explicit and spatially interactive forest simulation model, LANDIS-II, to estimate future biodiversity following each of two disturbance events (emerald ash borer or windthrow) and climate futures (downscaled CMIP5 climate change projections representing the upper bound of expected changes in precipitation and temperature). We also developed immersive virtual reality experiences based on the model results.
Results/Conclusions
Results showed forest reorganization to be responsive to interactions among climate, succession, and disturbance. For a species-specific disturbance like emerald ash borer, initial landscape composition and age and climate had a stronger influence on end-Century biodiversity than ash mortality. However, in windstorm scenarios, only 17% of the changes could be attributed to changes in climate. Landscape-level patterns in biodiversity were heterogeneous, suggesting the importance of quantifying spatial resilience at landscape scales when forecasting future forest change. We also developed a workflow for translating model outcomes into immersive virtual experiences about these forests of the future. While still a frontier in ecosystem modeling, these visualization experiences have the potential to help scientists, managers, and communities define sustainable forest management pathways under deep uncertainties.