The use of viral pathogens to control the population size of pest insects has produced both successful and unsuccessful outcomes. We investigated whether those biocontrol successes and failures can be explained by key ecological and evolutionary processes between hosts and pathogens. Specifically, we examined how heterogeneity in pathogen transmission, ecological and evolutionary tradeoffs, and pathogen diversity affect insect population density and thus successful control. We investigated the effects of these processes on insect population density using numerical simulations of mathematical models based on forest outbreaking insects and their viral pathogens.
Results/Conclusions
We found that the control of insect densities using viruses depends strongly on the heterogeneity of virus transmission among insects. Overall, increased heterogeneity of transmission reduces the effect of viruses on insect densities and increases the long-term stability of insect populations. Lower equilibrium insect densities occur when transmission is heritable and when there is a tradeoff between mean transmission and insect fecundity compared to when the heterogeneity of transmission arises from non-genetic sources. Thus, the heterogeneity of transmission is a key parameter that regulates the long-term population dynamics of insects and their pathogens. We also show that both heterogeneity of transmission and life-history tradeoffs modulate characteristics of population dynamics such as the frequency and intensity of ``boom--bust" population cycles. Furthermore, we show that because of life-history tradeoffs affecting the transmission rate, the use of multiple pathogen strains is more effective than the use of a single strain to control insect densities only when the pathogen strains differ considerably in their transmission characteristics. By quantifying the effects of ecology and evolution on population densities, we are able to offer recommendations to assess the long-term effects of classical biocontrol.