Spatial planning for global biodiversity in response to climate change

Roehrdanz, Patrick

Patrick Roehrdanz, Conservation International, Washington DC, DC, Lee Hannah, Conservation International, Washington DC, Cory Merow, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storss, CT, Brian Enquist, The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, Xiao Feng, Institute of the Environment, Florida State University/University of Arizona, AZ, Brian S. Maitner, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, Brad Boyle, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, Erica Newman, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, TUCSON, AZ, Richard T. Corlett, Department of Biological Sciences, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Gardens, China, Pablo A. Marquet, Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, Derek Corcoran, Department of Ecology, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, Javier Fajardo, UNEP-WCMC, Guy F. Midgley, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa, Wendy Foden, Cape Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa, Jon Lovett, University of Leeds, Jens-Christian Svenning, Department of Biology, Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark, Naia Morueta-Holme, University of Copenhagen, Center of Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark, Niels Raes, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Daniel S. Park, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, Thymios Nikolopoulos, Florida Institute of Technology, Amy E. Frazier, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, Haruko Wainwright, Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, Emmanouil Anagnostou, Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, Nicola Falco, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, Laura Duncanson, Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD and Xinyi Shen, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT

Background/Question/Methods

Biodiversity, and the threats posed to biodiversity, will be altered with the onset of 21^st century climate change. These shifts in both species ranges and in the spatial configuration of threats to biodiversity will affect the context of success for protected areas and other area-based conservation investments in the future. Many species’ ranges will move to track suitable conditions -- with increasing likelihood that they fall outside of the protected areas systems originally designed to conserve such features. As species shift, ecosystems will fragment, adjust and re-assemble affecting the spatial representation of species and ecosystems in conserved areas – placing investments in area-based conservation and their successful application as a conservation instrument at risk by climate change.

Through synthesized global data compilation and a focused pan-tropical assessment, the GEF-funded project Spatial Planning for Area Conservation in Response to Climate Change (SPARC) was designed to examine the change and potential loss of suitable area for species in existing conserved areas and to explore options that reduce the extinction risk of species under climate change through strategic planning.

Results/Conclusions

Preliminary analysis that involved modeled range projections for over 100,000 tropical plant and vertebrate species reveals that strategic conservation that achieves a 30% terrestrial area target can reduce aggregate species extinction risk by 46-62% as compared to if no further conservation action is taken under an RCP 8.5 pathway. Strategic planning with a 50% terrestrial area target and climate mitigation action consistent with the Paris agreements (approximated by RCP 2.6) can result in a 72-82% reduction of extinction risk as compared to no conservation or climate action.

Work in progress to build on these findings includes: 1) extending the analytical domain to conduct a global analysis; 2) enhanced species distribution model techniques to produce range projections for rare or poorly sampled species; 3) including projections of fine-scale climate variability (e.g. drought frequency; extreme temperature events; fires) in the species range projections. Results from this work will have particular relevance to inform the Convention on Biological Diversity post-2020 discussions and target setting processes.

COS 221 Abstract - Spatial planning for global biodiversity in response to climate change