The demand for cocoa is expected to rise by 30% by 2020 year. Increases in global demand are currently met through small-holder farm expansion, at the expense of tropical forest conversion. However, recent studies suggest cacao plantations may suffer a yield deficit of up to 70%, at least in part due to pollination deficit. This means there is an opportunity to significantly increase production by managing to enhance pollinator populations. Unfortunately, the most commonly used model for forecasting cocoa yield does not have variables and parameters related to cacao-pollination. SUCROS-cocoa is a physiological model that predicts cacao growth using climate, soil and physiological data. The model, implemented in the cacao simulation engine (CASE II) predicts that moisture, light and maintenance respiration mostly explain yield deficit. However, recent work shows that pollination services limit yield more than abiotic resource availability.
Results/Conclusions
Here, we show results of pollination experiments from 8 plantations in Ghana, West Africa that show an increased yield (number of matured pods) with increasing percent rate of pollination (0-100%). The study emphasizes the need to integrate a pollination module in the current SUCROS-cocoa model, to improve the empirical basis for sustainable management strategies which will help to meet economic and ecological goals.