The overarching goal of this work was to strengthen our understanding of spatiotemporal litterfall dynamics and cyclone-induced mangrove
litterfall activity by examining the relative roles of local climate versus tropical cyclone activity on litterfall timing and magnitude.
We hypothesized that tropical cyclones would cause variations in spatial-temporal litterfall patterns which would be manifest by a) an
immediate increase in litterfall after a cyclonic event proportional to the intensity of each cyclone; b) a period of low litterfall
reflected in the trend pattern during mangrove recovery and; c) a disruption in regular seasonal litterfall pattern, d) a greater
litterfall in a radius of disturbance close to cyclonic landfall point.
We use a data base of eight years of monthly litterfall (from 2009 to 2016) from eight localities along the coastline of central Gulf of
Mexico. We employed a time-series approach to evaluate inter-annual variation in mangrove litterfall. First, we identified key climatic
parameters that likely influence mangrove litterfall patterns at the regional scale and differentiated their effect from the effects of
tropical cyclones. Then, we evaluated the potential relationships between mangrove litterfall and tropical cyclones through a correlation
analysis between the components of each time-series (trend, seasonality and random) and through an evaluation of outlier effects on
mangrove litterfall. Finally, we examined the spatial relationship between the mangrove litterfall and tropical cyclone landfall.
Results/Conclusions: Our results suggest that litterfall follows phenological cycles which are directly correlated with predictably cyclic
variables, such as temperature, precipitation, daylength and vapor pressure. These results highlight the resilience of mangrove vegetation
and its value to mitigate the impact of cyclones events along the coasts, in a relatively protected area within the Gulf of Mexico.
We conclude that in Veracruz, the landfall of tropical storms does not leave a conspicuous imprint on litterfall patterns.