2020 ESA Annual Meeting (August 3 - 6)

INS 17 Abstract - The greenwave: Moving beyond descriptive to predictive models of seasonality

Thursday, August 6, 2020
Luke J. Zachmann1, Vincent A. Landau1, Tony Chang1 and Jeffrey Morisette2, (1)Conservation Science Partners, (2)National Invasive Species Council, U.S. Department of the Interior, Fort Collin, CO
Understanding the nature of seasons has long been a preoccupation for humankind. Boom or bust, they have an immediate connection to our health and livelihoods, and shape the landscapes in which we live. The idea that climate change might be altering annual cycles of growth and decay is adding new urgency to efforts to predict seasonality and understand its drivers. Here, we present a new model that does just that by looking back at four decades of Earth observation data. Inspired by the success of weather forecasts, we discuss the prospect of forecasting seasonal characteristics in the future.