2020 ESA Annual Meeting (August 3 - 6)

OOS 45 Abstract - Using integrated population modeling to estimate demographic rates without direct data for improved inference in ecology

Fitsum Abadi Gebreselassie, Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM
Background/Question/Methods

Understanding the population dynamics of species is crucial in designing effective management and conservation actions. This requires reliable estimate of vital rates such as survival probabilities and fecundity. Integrated population modeling (IPM) offers a flexible approach for combining demographic and population count data within a single framework to estimate and model vital rates as a function of covariates. One of the advantages of IPM is that it allows estimation of parameters for which no direct data are available. I illustrate the benefit of IPM in estimating immigration rate of peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) and juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri).

Results/Conclusions

The analyses revealed that the posterior median immigration rate for peregrine falcons was 0.208 (95% credible interval (CRI): 0.089, 0.424). For emperor penguins, juvenile survival was estimated with mean 0.401 (95% CRI: 0.182, 0.662). In addition, juvenile survival was positively influenced by southern annular mode (climate covariate) during the rearing period. The two case studies highlight IPM can be a powerful tool to estimate latent parameters that are not estimable from a single data source alone.