Background/Question/Methods The wetland ecosystem particularly wetland flora are highly sensitive to climate change. This study was designed to understand the distribution of wetland plants based on the temperature pattern of wetland in Korea and estimate the vulnerability and risk level to wetland plants. Altogether, 489 wetland plants of South Korea were selected and determined the habitat temperature range of each species, and current and future temperature data of each point, which were extracted according to the coordinates of each species. The current temperature was determined from the observation between 1960 and 1990, and future temperature data was taken from the Worldclim based on the climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The habitat temperature range of each plant species was divided into five patterns including normal distribution, expansion, reduction, narrow range distribution, and the others. The five types of vulnerable categories were evaluated (high, mid, low, not vulnerable and adaptation) by combining five patterns respectively to test the vulnerability to the temperature of each species. Based on the vulnerability assessment results, the number of species deviating from the lower 10% of the temperature range in Korean Peninsula was classified into three type of risks (high, middle and low risk) for the years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
Results/Conclusions The analysis results revealed 381 species were type A, 96 species were type B, 3 species were type C, 54 species type D, and 76 species type E. The vulnerability assessment results showed altogether, 36 species were estimated as the highly vulnerable species, 18 were mid vulnerable, 266 were low vulnerable, and 76 were not vulnerable. Similarly, 93 species were likely to adopt under the increased temperature. The Equisetum hyemale was predicted as low-risk species under the climate change scenario RCP4.5 from 2040 to 2100. On the other hand, the risk assessment results showed 185 species will have low risk and 24 species will have intermediate risk (e.g., Euryale ferox, Leymus mollis, Limonium tetragonum, Dryopteris crassirhizoma, and Polygonatum stenophyllum) under RCP 8.5. However, we could not confirm highly risked species under this climate change scenario. This study evaluated the vulnerability of wetland plants and classified into different risk categories under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Therefore, this study will be significant to design climate change adaptation policy and conservation of wetland plant species.
