The California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) recently proposed to protect 7 million acres of California’s private forestland by incorporating an assessment of the risk and hazard of wildfires into permits required for timber harvesting. As of January 2019, these timber permits–known as Timber Harvesting Plans–include a new component titled, “Wildfire Risk and Hazard.” This new section requires permit applicants to determine whether significant, cumulative environmental impacts will occur on existing wildfire risk and hazard following tree removal. However, a standardized methodology to evaluate this section has not been developed. To address this need, our team conducted research on forest and fire science theory, tested models, and collected expert knowledge to develop standard approaches for assessing wildfire risk and hazard.
Results/Conclusions
Our team developed three approaches for assessing wildfire hazard and two approaches for wildfire risk associated with a timber harvest. These methods are outlined in a decision tree tool, which instructs for wildfire hazard that a) all permit applicants conduct a qualitative assessment and b) large-harvest applicants quantify hazard with either model-simulated tree growth over 30 years or historical spatial data. For wildfire risk, our decision tree instructs a) small-harvest applicants to consider high-value infrastructure within a given buffer and b) large-harvest applicants to model risk using the wildfire hazard results. Together, this recommended approach guides permit applicants through a standardized “Wildfire Risk and Hazard” assessment that relies on publicly accessible data, consistent definitions and metrics, credible models, and the best available science. Looking forward, our team recommends research on the link between timber harvest methods and resulting wildfire behavior, along with continued support for statewide spatial data.