Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Reserve (OWC NERR) located in Huron, Ohio, is the last remaining natural freshwater coastal estuary. It provides ecosystem services in reducing excess nutrients from the surrounding agriculture and provides habitat for a wide range of flora and fauna. However, climate change will affect the estuaries water depth fluctuations, which in turn will change the ecosystem structure. We seek to understand the effects of climate change on water depth, and how water depth fluctuations influence the estuaries ecosystem services represented by the number of muskrat lodges (Ondatra zibethicus). We developed an empirical model using historical data, linking water depth fluctuations to hydrological and meteorological variables. Additionally, we used water depth as an indicator for habitat suitability of muskrats. These models were used to project potential changes of muskrat habitat distributions under future climate scenarios.
Results/Conclusions
Under future climate scenarios, we expect increased variation in water level. Based on the habitat model, the optimal depth for muskrats is about 80 cm and ranges between 56-110 cm. Heat maps for muskrat lodge densities throughout the estuary were developed under various climate change scenarios. These predictions will help managers at OWC anticipate future depth fluctuations to preserve the estuary and sustain ecosystem services into an uncertain future.