Climate change is causing shifts in the phenology (timing of life events) of many organisms, with consequences such as changes in species interactions and community composition. Understanding how changes in climate have affected phenology in the past is critical for predicting how continued change will affect organisms’ ability to adapt to novel abiotic conditions in the future. I am investigating the effects of climate change on phenology of the native California wildflower, Streptanthus tortuosus, using herbarium specimens and local historical weather data to elucidate whether flowering trends correlate with changes in environmental variables such as temperature and the timing, frequency, and variability of precipitation in several populations for the past 30-60 years. I will also compare historical phenology with recent observations from the same field localities, assessing differences in phenological trends across a latitudinal and elevational gradient. I hypothesize that the phenology of S. tortuosus will advance across all populations as a function of time, and that higher elevation populations will advance disproportionately due to intensified effects of warming on mountains. The aim of the project is to examine the effects of climate change on phenology and potential consequences such as reduced fitness through drought stress or phenological mismatches between the plant and its pollinators. The results of this study will allow us to better understand and predict plants’ ability to adapt and persist as they face new and increasingly variable environmental conditions.
Results/Conclusions
Preliminary results indicate that there is no significant advancement of flowering across all elevations. This could be because S. tortuosus tends to flower later in the season and therefore does not experience the advanced flowering that is more commonly found in plants flowering plant in early spring. The local historical weather data can can help us understand finer scale trends regarding flowering phenology and can help us predict how current climate change trends will affect the plant’s flowering time.