Because changing weather patterns are affecting regions of the Midwest differently, stakeholders need watershed level, down-scaled climate change informed, physically-based hydrology and ecosystem services models to assess land change alternatives in order to effectively plan, adapt, and mitigate for future effects of change. A series of models were coupled together to assess ecosystem services in the Kankakee River basin of Northwest Indiana. The methodology combines downscaled climate change projections with a physically-based surface water (VIC) model coupled to a groundwater (MODFLOW) model to inform watershed level changes and further links to ecosystem service models such as waterfowl and recreational user value and agricultural production. The models were used to assess alternate land change scenarios such as wetland restorations to evaluate the inevitable trade-offs.
Results/Conclusions
The Kankakee River watershed has been experiencing increased rainfall and this trend will accelerate into the future. The downscaled composite Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicate a 20% increase in peak flows by the 2020s, a 40% increase by the 2050s, and 50% increase by the 2080s with the majority of the precipitation coming in the late winter and early springs months followed by decreased rainfall in the summer months. Additionally, the flood events will increase in size. Wetland restoration is a viable option for increasing surface water storage and mitigation the hydrologic impacts of climate change in addition to creating waterfowl and recreational user value in the watershed that can be enhanced with the addition of protected lands for public use.