Although it is well known that different aspects of vector-borne diseases are modulated by hydro-climatic variability (e.g., rainfall, temperature, and humidity), the impact of climate and hydrologic related hazards, as driven by a combination of several potentially inter-dependent processes which in some cases lead to the co-occurrence of different extreme events (e.g, drought and heat wave occurring at the same time) is much less understood. Particularly interesting for these extreme events is the interplay between the sequence of hydroclimatic extremes and the internal temporal dynamics of the social and ecological drivers of the epidemics.
Results/Conclusions
Using a simple mosquito population model driven by stochastic rainfall, soil moisture, and temperature, we investigate the effect of the compound climatic extremes on the recorded dengue outbreak. Focusing on a unique sequence of climate-related catastrophic events recently occurred in Sri Lanka (a historic drought with severe impact on the country’s food production that was followed by disastrous floods in concomitance with dengue fever outbreak), our preliminary results reveals the relationship between the sequence of extreme climatic events (drought and flood) in the emergence of dengue outbreak. The compound climatic hazards, similar to the successive drought and floods in Sri Lanka, are expected to happen more often due to the climate change with a potential impact on the burden of the vector-borne diseases.