Understanding and predicting the effects of extreme weather events such as hurricanes on the dynamics of populations has increased in importance as climate models predict that the severity of storms will increase under current trends in global change. Few studies have addressed both transient (short-term) and asymptotic (long-term) effects of hurricanes on the structure of animal populations. In this study, we examined the demographic effects of three major hurricanes on the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population. Continuous and detailed life history records have been collected for this population since 1956, resulting in the world’s largest longitudinal demographic dataset on a nonhuman primate. We used 45 years of individual-level data to parameterize and analyze female-only, stage-based matrix population models and assess changes in population structure, vital rates, and population growth in response to the three major hurricane events experienced by the population.
Results/Conclusions
Based on data from 4,635 individuals, we found that the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaques exhibited resistance during hurricane years. Despite large-scale destruction of habitat, differences among non-hurricane years and hurricane years did not significantly alter the structure of the population with respect to breeding stages. We found that mortality rates increased marginally during hurricane years, resulting in only slight reductions in the population growth rate. Our results show that this population is able to survive and even continue to increase in size despite higher mortality rates during hurricane years, demonstrating the capacity for animal populations to withstand disturbances. We discuss our findings with respect to the underlying drivers of transient and long-term dynamics of animal populations following extreme events.