Large parts of the Amazon are being converted into agricultural land. This land conversion proceeds as a series of progressions from small patches of swidden agriculture, through intermediate sized cattle ranches, to large areas of industrial agriculture. These transformation change the habitat for vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, and generate significant health risks as well as economic benefits for people living and working in the area. We will describe a series of models that examine the underlying dynamics between land-transformation, human population growth, economic growth and the dynamics of vector borne diseases. The models blend together human demography, vector-borne disease dynamics and the economic benefits of agricultural development as well as the economic costs of being sick and unable to work.
Results/Conclusions
The models provide a framework that suggests that "Frontier malaria" always peaks at intermediate stages of land-use development, as development proceeds, malaria tends to decline, but other vector-borne diseases, whose vectors are better adapted to human modified habitats may then emerge. The economic analyses suggests that a variety of alternative pathways are available for the development of the Amazon. Those that require large scale land conversion will not necessarily be the ones that maximize economic benefits and health of the local communities.