The geographic distribution of species of conservation concern may be shifting under future climatic conditions. Distributional shift estimates can improve long-term design of payments for biodiversity and ecosystem services, compared to programs developed from historic estimates of biodiversity and ecosystem services that ignore future uncertainties. This study focused on uncertainty induced by future range shifts of terrestrial vertebrates of conservation concern under various climate change scenarios in the central and southern Appalachian region of U.S. This region has been highlighted in continental scale analyses as playing an important role in supporting biodiversity as the climate changes and species’ suitability shifts in geography. We included all terrestrial vertebrates listed as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act, considered of conservation concern in wildlife action plans of Appalachian states, or having at least 75% of their known range within the Appalachian region. The future potential distributions of the species of interest were estimated with an ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent), under three Global Circulation Models and two emission scenarios, for two future time periods. The models were fit with species’ presence records available in online databases (GBIF, BISON) and historical climate conditions for 1950-2000, then projected on future climatic conditions.
Results/Conclusions
Our criteria for identifying species of particular conservation concern encompassed 75 amphibians, 42 reptiles, 92 birds, and 52 mammals. Projected ranges for these species varied in how much they changed under the set of climate scenarios considered. For a given species though, the future potential distributions obtained under the three Global Circulation Models had comparable geographic patterns. The uncertainty was greater by emission scenario and time period. Marked reductions in potential distributions were observed for terrestrial vertebrates that are endemic (over 75% of range) to the Appalachian region. When aggregating the projected ranges, we found that locations of peak species richness changed under future climate scenarios. At the same time, we were able to identify locations that appear consistently important for ensuring the species are conserved. Places predicted to see rapid compositional changes as a result of a changing climate are not the same as those that are predicted to see most habitat change with land use projections. When combined with other regional drivers such as land use change, future potential distributions of species of conservation concern can help plan conservation investments and increase return on investment.