SYMP 6-2 - What insights can we gain from simple mathematical models of coupled human-environment systems?

Tuesday, August 13, 2019: 2:00 PM
Ballroom E, Kentucky International Convention Center
Madhur Anand, Global Ecological Change & Sustainability Laboratory, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
Background/Question/Methods

A body of work is emerging wherein simple mathematical models of ecological dynamics are coupled to simple mathematical models of human behaviour to examine long-term sustainability of these systems. There are pros and cons to the use of simple models, as has been argued for decades in science. I will review these pros and cons in the context of several recent and ongoing studies of ours where we examine widely-ranging contemporary human-environment problems including forest pest control, coral reef endangerment, forest-grassland mosaic sustainability, human disease spread, land-use management, and climate change mitigation.

Results/Conclusions

Wicked problems such as these require the kind of basic understanding of alternate stable states, feedback strengths, and parameter influences that simple mathematical models can provide. I argue that the value of our models is one of complementarity: strengths of simple models may compensate for weakness of other approaches. Indeed when the level of complexity of the human and environmental submodels that constitute a coupled model are mismatched, then a ‘lower common denominator’ coupled model may be the most parsimonious way to start. Simple models can inform policy and other decision makers by revealing the mechanisms behind emergent properties and critical transitions. I prove examples of such insights from our recent and ongoing case studies.