Concern over climate change and altered disturbance regimes has prompted debate about whether it is possible to accelerate the ability of forests to adapt to novel conditions (through managing for adaptive capacity), maintain resilience, and continue the provision of ecosystem services. We examined the spatial distribution of resilience across northern Minnesota in response to disturbance and assessed whether or how resilience would be shaped by climate change and management. We used a simulation modeling approach to assess multiple climates, management approaches, soils, and disturbances. Resilience was measured as multivariate departure from pre-disturbance conditions after a sufficient time period to potentially allow full recovery.
Results/Conclusions
Our results suggest that resilience will decline as the magnitude of climate change increases. Resilience, as measured, was variable across the landscape and is dependent on both social and ecological influences. In particular, climate adaptive management could maintain or even increase resilience although radical interventions may be necessary. We compare our results against a conceptual framework that quantifies patterns of ecosystem response to disturbance and climate change within which there are four potential responses: resistance, resilience, adaptation, and decline. We conclude that a range of landscape trajectories are possible and that ecosystem services should be independently assessed.