2018 ESA Annual Meeting (August 5 -- 10)

SYMP 11 - Downscaling, Extreme Events and Stochastic Population Models

Wednesday, August 8, 2018: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
352, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Organizer:
Diana C. Rypkema
Co-organizer:
Shripad Tuljapurkar
Moderator:
Andrea C. Westerband
Extreme events strongly impact ecological populations. With continued climate change, extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and/or severity. However, current climate models deal with extreme events on a large spatial scale (>10,000 sq km), too large to capture the dynamics affecting ecological populations on a local level. There is also a lack of research quantitatively integrating the impacts of extreme events into ecological population models. At this symposium, we address three connected challenges: (1) Downscaling, in which we use data and/or models to statistically characterize extreme events on an ecologically-relevant spatial scale; (2) the inclusion of such downscaled descriptions in different ecological models and their diverse ecological consequences; and (3) the explicit analysis of systems where we are able to do both downscaling and ecological modeling simultaneously. The speakers and topics span a range of disturbance types and systems, and illustrate the usefulness of distinct quantitative analyses.
1:30 PM
How climate affects extreme events and hence ecological population models
Diana C. Rypkema, Stanford University; Carol Horvitz, University of Miami; Shripad Tuljapurkar, Stanford University
2:30 PM
Population heterogeneity, stochasticity, and extreme demographic events
Silke F. van Daalen, University of Amsterdam; Hal Caswell, University of Amsterdam
3:00 PM
3:10 PM
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